Nick Robinson is reporting that the current early estimate of the party’s vote shares in Crewe and Nantwich are:

50% Tory
28 % Labour
17 % Lib Dem

Surely that can’t be?!

If the result is a final vote share something like that, then I was wrong that this Crewe and Nantwich by-election doesn’t matter.

If the Conservative vote share is reaching something like 50% in a constituency that had a 48.8% Labour vote share in 2005, with the Conservatives on 32.6%, then it is a massive blow to Gordon Brown’s leadership. Even taking into account the very likely possibility that a good number of the votes were a personal vote on Gwyneth Dunwoody, since she had been the MP for much of the area since 1974, that is a big swing.

If the final tally of the votes gives results like that, it certainly is time for Brown to consider his position – and for the Labour Party to consider Brown’s position as well. Turning a 16% lead into a second place 22% behind – a swing of 38% – can only be achieved in some very special circumstances. Those being a resurgent Conservative Party, increasingly positioning itself as the alternative government, and a failing, out of date, Labour government with a leader about as charismatic as Mr Potato Head – without the plastic features.