…would give an extremely large Conservative majority, if polls like this are to be believed:

Conservatives: 49%

Labour: 23%

Liberal Democrats: 17%

A general election result of this percentage would give us a parliament made of the following:

Conservatives: 469 MPs

Labour: 129 MPs

Liberal Democrats: 24 MPs

… aka, a Tory majority of 316.

[Prediction by Electoral Calculus]

Of course, as much as I and every other Conservative supporter would like a see a result like that, none of us are [at least I hope none are] niave enough to believe that it will – or, really, could happen. Even with the massively successful for us local elections this year, we got “only” 44% of the vote. So quite how one could expect that to translate into a general election share of 49%, I don’t know.

One thing is certain: this will not be the vote shares that the parties get at the next general election – whenever it is. To start with, it misses out any impact of other minor parties, such as the SNP and Plaid Cymru. And there’s the fact that this is a mid-term poll right after a triumphant local election for the Conservatives.

What it does do is perk up Tory activists like myself. And it puts paid to the claim that “the Conservatives aren’t doing anywhere near as well as New Labour did when in Opposition”. It also sets a benchmark for the Conservatives, though. If they don’t get this sort of level agin they’ll be seen to have hit a “slump”.

If only they can keep the lead somewhere around that level now…