Well, I was definitely wrong. This Crewe and Nantwich by-election does matter. Even though the Conservative vote share wasn’t 50% as Nick Robinson was suggesting, it was damn close at 49.5% – a majority [well, plurality] of 7,860 for Edward Timpson MP.

This is a result nearly twice that of what was needed for a “really good result“. A swing of 17.6% from Labour to the Conservatives. And this is the first by-election victory for the Conservatives in my lifetime.

But that’s enough triumphalism. Justin McKeating is right that:

Any Tory who thinks they are winning rather than Labour losing needs to stop jumping around and take a bit of breather…

This isn’t some massive ideological swing behind the ideas of the Tory party. It’s the political equivalent of the electorate switching to a new washing powder.

We must ensure that we do not get caught up in overt celebrations and act as if the next general election is in the bag. It isn’t, and won’t be. No matter what the polls say. Until the general election has been called, held, and every single vote has been counted and verified, we do not know what the result will be. Even if Mike Smithson of Political Betting is now calling a Conservative majority at the next general election.

If we start developing a smug satisfaction and act like we expect the get elected, the public will rightly tell us where to get off. We should allow ourselves a short and understated celebration – after all “for any Tory under the age of 45, success on such a scale is a sheer novelty” – but then get right back to work proving ourselves ready and able to take over and lead Britain back to greatness.