This is a question posed by Mike Smithson at Political Betting. He quotes a Times leader:

The vital choice lies with his Cabinet colleagues. This, if they choose to seize it, is their moment… The fact is that Cabinet members have the power and, within a few days, the opportunity to change Labour’s course and they now has to decide.

They could choose action. This would involve a Cabinet minister (or ministers) resigning, voicing in public the frustration with Mr Brown’s leadership that is common currency among them. Senior resignations would trigger a leadership contest…

Of course, Cabinet members may choose not to act. This would involve closing ranks around Mr Brown on the ground that economic recovery will provide a political dividend. This would mean making an honest judgment that, for themselves, for their colleagues in the PLP, for the reputation of the Labour Party and for the sake of good government, they truly believe that Mr Brown offers the best leadership…

The question is now whether any of them is prepared to act.

The thing is, even if they wanted to act, removing Brown this close to a required general election would be a disaster. A Labour leadership contest is virtually impossible to call – and even if the Cabinet could force Brown to stand down, holding an election for a new leader would nigh-on bankrupt the Labour Party – and the infighting that happens in leadership elections would damage the party even more.

But no-one in the Cabinet is suicidal enough to want to take over the Labour party in its current state. If they had any sense, rather than forcing Brown out, they would be forcing him to call a general election – after a general election, they could start afresh – have their leadership contest in the obscurity of Opposition whilst Cameron was having his first days of government. Of course, the risk is that Brown could win a general election – and then they’d be stuck with him. But that does seem rather unlikely.

One thing, however, is certain – we are definitely not witnessing the final twelve days of Gordon Brown’s premiership. He will not be leaving, no matter how bad the local and European elections end up being for Labour.

UPDATE: The story has also been picked up by the Spectator, and Guido reckons that Alan Johnson and David Miliband are readying their leadership campaign teams for after the June 4th election – something which I find ridiculous. It’s waaaay too early (and way too late) for anyone with any political sense to start pushing for a leadership election.

UPDATE 2: Danny Finkelstein comes to the same conclusion, using maths.