The latest YouGov poll is terrible news for Labour – their lowest ever poll rating.

• Conservatives: 42% (-2)
• Labour: 22% (-5)
• Lib Dems: 19% (+1)

The important points to take from this are that:

1. There is a 19 point gap between the Conservatives and Labour, which would give a Commons majority of 152;
2. Labour have been most adversely affected by this issue so far;
3. Labour are only 3 points ahead of the Lib Dems – the lowest gap for decades.

However, this poll must be taken with a large pinch of salt. To start with, when it was carried out was only just after the Tory expense claims had been published and before any Lib Dem sleaze had been revealed.

As such, it almost certainly shows a biased anti-Labour picture that won’t be reproduced to the same extent in later polls and a pro-Lib Dem picture that should right itself once people see that Lib Dems are certainly no cleaner than the rest of the partioes – despite all their rhetoric, which is now revealed to be hypocrisy of the rankest kind.

Brown has been told by his advisers that if he doesn’t get the Conservative lead down to single figures by Christmas, he might as well give up. If we believe this poll (I don’t – see below), that means he needs to more than halve the gap – but even if we don’t believe this poll, all of the latest voting intentions give the Conservatives a healthy lead that it will be very hard indeed for Labour to get down to single figures.

I don’t think that we can put too much faith in this poll in terms of the percentages for each party because whilst the revelations are still coming thick and fast, everything will remain up in the air. But we can see that the electorate are turning against those who make false, inappropriate or excessive claims with their money. With any luck, this will act as a catalyst to get real reform and a transparent political system in place.