It once was the common assumption that a general election would be held on the last day possible – in early June – so that Gordon Brown could hold on to power for as long as possible. This conclusion was reached based on, at the time, perfectly logical reasons: after bottling out of an election during th autumn of 2007 when he took over and gained a temporary poll lead, he was hardly going to call an election before he had to when he was more than likely to lose! Especially considering his well-known long-term covetousness of the job.

But now, after the recent slight reduction of the Conservatives poll lead and the Pre-Budget Report, that assumption has shifted. May 6th was expected to be the date due to the practicalities of the local elections, but now March 25th is being seen as more and more likely. But why?

1. A short campaign means Labour have to spend less money on the campaign – which is good for them, because they don’t have much.
2. It means they don’t have a hold a Budget and thus do more than “appear” to have any sort of a plan to get us out of the debt hole they have dug us into.
3. Labour local election results should be insulated to a certain extent from anti-government voting and hold on to seats that they would otherwise lose if the votes were held on the same day (and holding the general election after would prompt people to vote against Labour as a pre-protest).

Personally, I would like the general election to be on March 25th. Would fit easier into my work schedule – though my employers have been nice enough to allow me to arrange time off before both March 25 and May 6 – and structure my workload around it.