A hung parliament is, if we take the recent poll results as gospel, on the cards. The Conservatives need a national poll lead of 11 points in order to guarantee a majority, but the current polls are suggesting a lead of seven to nine points. Hence the plethora of “what will happen in the event of a hung parliament?” questions being posed. Even the Queen is being primed on what could happen.

But a hung parliament is still a relatively unlikely event. The MPs expenses won’t make have of an impact on the re-election prospects of most MPs, but could easily pick off a few of the offenders in the more marginal seats.

Also, the top-line poll results we see are national polls, and inevitably include an increase in safe seats. It is widely believed that Labour’s recovery is very much down to a re-engagement of its core support in its heartlands, and as such building in the areas it needs it least.

Then we have the reality of UK elections: only the marginal seats really matter. And in these marginal seats, the swing to the Tories is greater than across the country – because they knw that the choice is simple – who do they want to be Prime Minister, Gordon Brown or David Cameron? Five more years of Brown or a fresh new government bringing about the change we need; that’s what is being voted on.

A hung parliament is always a possibility. But not as likely as is being touted.